- The mood during the European and Asian sessions was weaker today. The DAX index retreated 2%, and the British FTSE fell more than 1.2%. The Hang Seng retreated more than 2.8%, on a wave of disappointing results from a stimulus program that the market deemed clearly insufficient. The index retreated below 20,000 points
- Germany's ZEW index indicated a sizable drop in economic sentiment to 7.4 versus 13 forecast and 13.1 previously. Germany's assessment of current conditions fell to -91.4 from -86.9 in the previous reading; well below forecasts of -85.9, which called for a slight improvement.
- U.S. indexes are recording declines in the second part of the U.S. session. Downward pressure is evident in the Russell 2000 index, with contracts losing nearly 2%. The US500 and US100 are losing in the -0.3% to -0.5% range. The U.S. dollar index rises to multi-month highs above 106, and 10-year bond yields rise 12 basis points to 4.45%. Weaker data from Europe and a strong U.S. economy send the EURUSD down nearly -0.4% today
- Tesla shares are down more than 6%, where we see accelerated profit taking after a wave of recent 'astronomical' gains. The semiconductor sector is also performing poorly, with Micron Technology's shares losing over 5% after a report from Edgewater Research suggesting lower prices for memory NAND chips in 2025
- The strong dollar is putting pressure on the precious metals market, with gold losing nearly 1% and palladium retreating 4%. Among agricultural commodities, cotton futures on ICE are losing heavily. Nearly 2% is lost on the CBOT for wheat and soybeans, where the expensive dollar favors lower prices. Energy commodities i.e. natural gas and oil are not seeing much volatility today
- The New York Fed's survey of 3-year expected inflation in the U.S. fell to 2.5% in October from 2.7% previously, and the 5-year inflation rate fell to 2.8% from 2.9% previously. U.S. households viewed inflation at 2.9% in 2025. This is the lowest forecast in four years.
- US households see the lowest probability of an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022. They also pointed to a lower probability of losing their current job and better prospects of finding a new one if they are laid off; October saw a decline in the probability of debt default, the first time in 5 months.
- Comments from the Fed's Barkin and Waller indicate that policy has already been adjusted, to a less restrictive level, and future moves by the bank will depend on data. The Fed will turn its attention to inflation or a decline in employment. Waller criticized the idea of creating a so-called CBDC currency.
- The cryptocurrency market is still in an upbeat mood; Bitcoin remains above $87.5K, and Ripple is up more than 10%, to around $0.7, on a wave of news about a possible meeting between CEO Brad Garlinghous and Donald Trump.
- According to Washington Post reports, Donald Trump will consider halting the blockade of TikTok in the US. Snap shares fell more than 5% today; partly under pressure from these comments, suggesting a 'consolidation' of its largest competitor in the domestic market
- Bank of America estimates 13% y/y earnings per share growth among S&P 500 companies in 2025.
- According to the Sawyer Merritt report, Rivian lost about $39,100 on each car produced in the third quarter of the year. In Q2, the loss was $32,700. The EV manufacturer's shares are losing more than 4% today
Source: xStation5
