Crypto news: Bitcoin below $27,000. Whales on supply-side? 📉

Bitcoin's volatility continues to fall, and the price is clearly having trouble breaking through $27,000. The decline continues from the beginning of May, when the price oscillated around $30,000. In this zone, long-term investors took advantage of the highest average gain of 34% this year. In addition, on-chain data showed that the supply at the beginning of May may have largely come from the side of the largest investors of the so-called "whales" (portfolios above 10,000 BTC). Historically, the price of the largest cryptocurrency tends to make a dynamic turnaround after a period of diminishing volatility - but it needs a volatility catalyst.

It seems that Bitcoin may follow the path of the Nasdaq and possibly react positively to the still likely increase in the US debt limit. If the limit is eventually raised early enough. On the other hand, however, recessionary readings from the economy could weigh on stock market sentiment, and Bitcoin's recently distorted correlation with gold amid the passing theme of the banking crisis, could cause BTC to follow the path of a risk asset like the Nasdaq rather than a safe haven asset like gold. Let's look at the relevant metrics of Bitcoin's current situation.

Looking at the history of Bitcoin's volatility over the past year, we see that its large drop has almost always preceded another very large increase. Currently, volatility is at mid-January levels - the lowest in almost 5 months. Source: CoinglassData from CryptoQuant indicated that the impact of so-called whales on Bitcoin's price weakened in May, with a high at the beginning of the month. The Exchange Whale Ratio, tracks the ratio of the size of the ten largest transactions affecting an exchange relative to all transactions. It is he confirmed that whales have been placing BTC on exchanges recently - most strongly in early May, when the price settled around $30,000. According to.CryptoQuant, BTC transactions by whales on exchanges rose to high levels then (nearly 40% of transfers). Source: CryptoQuant

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a popular indicator of crypto market sentiment. The index currently shows a 'neutral' level but is also at its lowest level in 2 months, suggesting weakening sentiment and a market correction. Source: Alternative.me

STH-MVRV measures the ratio of the average price paid for BTC by short-term investors (STH) to the realized price, i.e. the average historical price of BTC purchases by all investor groups. Currently, this onchain metric is heading for a 'reset,' meaning that disproportionately large STH gains are consistently erased. The recent drop in STH-MVRV may signal a deeper correction. Only the level of $24.4k would bring back the so-called breakeven level of 1.0. This zone often proved to be a support point when Bitcoin was in a bull market. Currently, the index is around 1.047. Source: Glassndoe

According to Glassnode data, the portion of supply that has been very active over the past three to six months is now at its lowest level in three months. This may signal an 'overbought' and 'fired' demand force. So-called hodlers i.e. long-term investors at current prices are still not inclined to increase buying or selling activity. Percentage-wise, however, the largest unrealized gain is held by a group of short-term investors, and it is from them that the strongest downward pressure is coming. The effects of this decline can be seen in the unrealized profit of long-term investors, which is today at its lowest level in a month. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin chart, H1 interval. The price has fallen below the SMA200 and SMA100 signaling progressive weakness in the major cryptocurrency. The primary support zone is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the March 10 upward wave. A potential breakout below it could open the way to $24,000 where we see the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. Since the US banking crisis, bitcoin has maintained a fairly intense correlation with gold prices (yellow chart). Source: xStation5