Will Tesla beat Wall Street expectations 7 time in a row? 🚗

US electric car maker Tesla (TSLA.US), led by Elon Musk, will present its financial results for the third quarter of the year today. Tesla shares are losing 36% so far this year-to-date, but are trading 2% higher before the opening:

Revenues: $21.96 bln according to Refinitiv (60% y/y growth)

Earnings per share (EPS): $1 according to Refinitiv (60% increase y/y)

• Analysts' expectations are again inflated as the company recently reported production of 365,923 vehicles in Q3 (53% y/y growth). Deliveries also rose to a record, according to the company, with 343,830 vehicles delivered in Q3 (42% y/y growth). Investors will see if Tesla will beat Wall Street estimates for the seventh consecutive quarter and meet the difficult market conditions;
• Equally important will be the further forecasts the company will issue when it presents its report. The average selling price of the Model 3 in the U.S. has risen 24% since January 2021, the report will show whether the company's EV price hike can offset any decline in car demand and the problems facing the auto sector in an environment of record inflation and more expensive credit;
• Elon Musk, who has always presented the company with bold challenges that he has shared with the market has caused Wall Street to start pricing Tesla's business at a huge premium. The billionaire's appetite for Tesla's success is clearly not waning, but in an unfavorable macro environment the company may find it harder to meet its own exorbitant targets. In a negative scenario, this could lower the stock's valuation and cool the powerful optimism around the company's shares that has lasted since 2020, and this is what Wall Street fears. Analysts will expect the report to detail the projected and ongoing supply chain disruptions, logistics and staffing problems Tesla has faced recently; 
• Tesla's Q2 deliveries were up 27% year-over-year and were solid all the more so when considering the Shanghai plant outage. There was no similar outage this quarter so we can expect an increase in deliveries. The Shanghai factory ended Q2 with record production growth, which is likely to be beaten. Its annual capacity is expected to be as high as 750,000 vehicles. Optimistic investors are betting that demand will confirm the validity of Tesla's recently increased production.  Ultimately, the company plans to grow vehicle deliveries by up to 50% over the next few years;
• The electric car market is fundamentally forward-looking, with analysts expecting a CAGR of up to 20%, through 2030. Leading automakers are trying to catch up with Tesla. At the same time, however, the current challenging market environment may slow down development toward EVs.  The company currently controls about 70% of the electric car market.

Demand for Tesla's most popular models in the US is slowing mightily in an environment of negative macro factors, fueling analysts' concerns. Source: RefinitivSo far, Tesla has done well beating Wall Street's expected earnings per share (EPS) continuously since Q1 2021. The last time weakness happened to the company was in the last quarter of 2020. Source: ReutersTesla (TSLA.US) stock chart, D1 interval. The stock price showed weakness when the SMA50 average attempted a bullish cut of the SMA200 in September. Looking at the mid-year quotes, the price may once again form a double day formation near $220-$230, which could serve as a bass for a future rebound. At the same time, however, the stock is priced at a huge premium in terms of fundamental indicators by which it could suffer significantly if market sentiment declines, even more so if it is overlaid by a weaker quarter and below Wall Street expectations. In addition, some analysts expect Elon Musk to sell Tesla shares to finance the billionaire's $44 billion acquisition of Twitter. Source: xStation