Regardless of the Elliott winter storm raging across the United States, gas prices are falling as weather models forecast record warming in the US, over the next 12 days. According to NatGasWeather forecasts, the improvement in weather is expected to result in the lowest demand for natural gas in the US in more than 40 years. Synoptics predict that by January 8, sub-zero air will retreat to Canada in most southern states.The exception would be the West Coast, where the weather is expected to moderate, as regular storms in the Pacific bring rain, snow and temperatures overnight.
The latest weather data indicates that the period of warm weather may end by January 9, when cold air over Canada will once again retreat to the northern part of the United States. In addition to the impact Elliott has had on weather and gas demand, the huge winter storm front has also had an impact on natural gas supply. Tuesday's early production data indicated about 80-86 Bcf/d of production. While temperatures should continue to rise throughout the week, it is too early to tell when production may return to levels above the 100 Bcf/d seen earlier this month. However, we see that the sizable drop in production, to 80 Bcf/d in recent days, has not prevented prices from falling well below $5 as investors in the US expect record warmth despite the onset of calendar winter.
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Natural gas inventories are declining, but it hasn't boosted NATGAS prices in face off record low demand forecasts. Source: NGI, EIA
NATGAS prices are falling and reaching levels last seen in mid-March this year. The RSI indicator has approached near oversold levels at 28 points signaling the possibility of a dynamic rebound if forecasts prove wrong and the weather surprises analysts with lower temperatures. Source: xStation5
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