US30 down 1% 📉FedEx shares sink 10% as company lowers guidance. US economy slows down?

U.S. stock markets are sliding in the final session of the week, with the US30, US500, and US100 indices all down about 1%. Market volatility is elevated today, partly due to Triple Witching Friday—the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, options, and single stock options in the U.S.

The rebound that began last Friday hit a significant resistance zone, despite a brief wave of optimism during the Federal Reserve’s latest decision day. Big Tech stocks have returned to declines, with Meta Platforms (META.US) being the only one in the group showing modest gains. Meanwhile, FedEx issued a warning, highlighting deteriorating consumer demand in the U.S. and a notable drop in delivery volumes, signaling potential economic slowdown.

Aside from FedEx, Nike (NKE.US) also disappointed investors with weaker-than-expected results and concerns that new tariffs could slow its business in the months ahead. Both stocks are under heavy selling pressure.

US30 Index (D1, H1)

The Dow Jones (US30) pulled back after retesting its 200-day EMA near the 42,000-point level.

Selling volume is dominating today's session, reflecting heightened market caution.

Source: xStation5

A tough quarter for FedEx (FDX.US)

Investor concern is intensifying around U.S. consumer strength and the broader industrial sector. The sharp declines in shares of FedEx and Nike reflect weak market sentiment toward cyclical stocks. In FedEx’s case, the outlook is becoming more fragile after the company cut its earnings forecast for the third time since December. Current analyst consensus projects FedEx’s EPS to grow by 6% to $18.93 in 2025, with revenue expected to reach $87.59 billion, essentially flat compared to 2024.

• Persistent weak demand in the U.S. industrial economy, especially in the higher-margin B2B segment.
• Ongoing declines in freight volumes and shipment weights, though slightly improved from the previous quarter.
• Rising macroeconomic uncertainty—CEO Raj Subramaniam noted that “the current environment increases uncertainty around future demand.”

 Updated Fiscal 2025 Guidance:

• EPS: now forecast at $18–18.60 (previously $19–20; initial guidance in December: $20–21 (FactSet consensus: $18.93)

• Revenue: expected to remain flat or slightly decline year over yea (previously projected to grow modestly)

• Capital Expenditures (CAPEX): cut to $4.9 billion (from $5.2 billion

• Focus: fleet & infrastructure modernization, automation, network efficiency

Fiscal Q3 2024 Results:

• Adjusted EPS: $4.51 (+17% YoY): Expectations: $4.56

• Revenue: $22.2 billion (+2% YoY): Expectations: $21.87 billion

FedEx admitted that it operated in a challenging environment last quarter, facing a shortened holiday season, extreme weather events, an early Chinese New Year, and a shift in sentiment from “Trump Trade” optimism to recession fears. CFO John Dietrich commented: “The downward revision in guidance reflects weakness in the U.S. industrial economy, but we remain confident in our transformation initiatives to deliver long-term value for shareholders.”

Like its rival United Parcel Service (UPS.US), FedEx is highly cyclical, meaning its performance is closely tied to the overall health of the economy. Growing concerns over weaker consumer activity, industrial softness, and potential U.S. tariffs are shaking investor confidence.

Analysts at Evercore ISI warned that structural uncertainty about the company’s ability to grow earnings in this environment will continue to weigh on valuation. As forecasts get revised lower and economic visibility remains cloudy, investor trust is fading—reflected in the stock’s recent decline.

FedEx and Nike (D1) chart

FedEx shares (FDX.US) are now trading nearly 30% below their 200-day EMA, signaling a technical bear market. With mounting concerns over the consumer sector, exemplified by Nike’s (NKE.US) weakness, investor sentiment toward cyclical sectors remains clearly negative. Both FedEx and Nike stocks are oversold now, looking at the daily RSI level.

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5