US100 loses 2% 📉

Futures on Nasdaq slide as Nvidia drops 6% due to chip exports, ASML reports weak results while trade-war escalate🗽

Weak order data from ASML and export restrictions targeting Nvidia are weighing on Wall Street futures. US100 futures, which represent tech-heavy companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, have come under strong downward pressure now losing more than 2%. This negative sentiment is the result of several key factors that are unsettling investors and casting a shadow over the outlook for the technology sector. The main concerns include escalating trade tensions with China—most notably the potential implementation of new 245% tariffs on selected products—disappointing financial results from Dutch semiconductor giant ASML, and tighter export restrictions on advanced chips produced by Nvidia. What's more, Hong Kong suspended postal service for US -bound goods.

Escalation of the trade war

Fears of a deepening trade war between the United States and China have once again taken center stage.
As Bloomberg points out, Donald Trump’s tariff policy highlights the erratic nature of his approach—having withdrawn earlier concessions granted to Nvidia. Secondly, it suggests that tensions between the U.S. and China remain serious, even if a superficial calm appears to prevail.

In addition to rolling back Nvidia exemptions and potential tariffs on critical minerals, the White House is now reportedly planning to impose 245% tariffs on certain products. According to media reports, these may initially apply to items such as syringes and needles—products with limited economic impact for either economy.

Weak results from ASML

Another factor weighing on investor sentiment is the weaker-than-expected order data published by ASML Holding NV (ASML.NL). Moreover, the company warned that import tariffs could burden its financial results in 2025 and 2026.
As a key supplier of advanced lithography systems for global chipmakers, ASML pointed to noticeable weakness in the semiconductor sector. The decline in orders may indicate slowing demand for new chips, which directly affects the growth prospects of many technology companies and is reflected in the declines seen in the US100.

Nvidia faces new export restrictions

Another blow to the tech sector and U.S.–China relations comes from the tightening of export rules on advanced chips by Nvidia. The U.S. government will now require a special license to export the company's H20 chips to China. Nvidia had previously voiced opposition to such measures. Initially, the company was supposed to be covered by a “protective umbrella,” but Trump appears to have ultimately withdrawn that safeguard, imposing new conditions on the firm. Nvidia estimates that in the first fiscal quarter, it will incur approximately $5.5 billion in costs related to inventory, purchase obligations, and associated product-related reserves.

Market Reaction

In response, US100 futures have retreated by more than 2%. However, the steepest declines began at 7:00 AM, following the release of ASML’s results. At the same time, there has been a shift away from the U.S. dollar and a rise in gold prices. The US100 is still well below EMA200, and fail to rebound above 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 upward wave. The most important support levels now are 61.8 and 71.6 Fibo at 17300 and 16500 pts level, supported also by previous price action.

Source: xStation5