The upcoming week has been long awaited by investors. The volatility related to capital repositioning between quarters will coincide with the announcement of new tariffs on most of the USA's trading partners and the implementation of car tariffs announced this week. Additionally, we will also learn labor market data from the US — NFP and ADP — as well as PMI and ISM reports for March. Instruments linked to the US economy, such as stock indices and currency pairs, may attract particular interest. For these reasons, we encourage monitoring, among others, the US500 index, the EURUSD currency pair, and GOLD.
EURUSD
The announcement of a broad list of tariffs on goods imported to the USA from a long list of trading partners will likely be the culmination of Trump’s tariff actions. On one hand, this may bring relief to investors once the day passes. However, in the case of negative surprises, we cannot rule out significant corrective moves. Increased volatility can be expected across all major currency pairs involving the dollar, including, of course, EURUSD. Additionally, this announcement will coincide with the implementation of tariffs on vehicles and car parts announced on March 26.
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The above-mentioned factors will affect not only the currency market but also the stock market. The rise in protectionism in the US will particularly impact globally operating companies, i.e., those included in the US100 or US500 indices. In addition to the topic of tariffs, the market will also receive a solid dose of macroeconomic data. On April 2, the ADP report will be released, and the day before, a set of PMI and ISM data for the US manufacturing sector. On Thursday, April 3, ISM and PMI data for the services sector will be published, and on Friday, the most important report — NFP — will be released. With such a wealth of new information, it will definitely be worth monitoring the US500 index for potential opportunities to open positions.
GOLD
Amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions, gold enjoyed exceptional interest in the first quarter of this year. In just three months, gold gained over 17%. It is possible that the new tariffs will again add fuel to the fire and intensify tense international relations with the USA. On the other hand, it may turn out that the tariff announcement on April 2 marks the peak of Trump’s tariff policy, and the next step will be negotiating better terms of trade cooperation. Regardless of the scenario, one thing is certain — we are about to begin another week full of excitement and volatility.
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