Gold starts 2025 with strong momentum after posting its best annual performance since 2010, with analysts projecting further gains amid expected rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank buying.
Market Dynamics
Start investing today or test a free demo
Open real account TRY DEMO Download mobile app Download mobile appFollowing a 27% gain in 2024, gold prices have kicked off 2025 with renewed strength, reaching their highest level since mid-December. The rally comes despite fund traders reducing net long positions to six-month lows, suggesting potential for further upside as positioning rebuilds.
Major investment banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup share a bullish $3,000 price target for 2025, citing multiple supportive factors.
Fundamental Drivers
Analysts highlight several catalysts supporting higher gold prices:
- Expected Fed rate cuts reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets
- Growing geopolitical tensions including Middle East conflicts and Trump's trade policies
- Continued central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets
- Potential reallocation from $6.7 trillion money market funds as yields decline
Asian Demand
Chinese buyers have emerged as a key source of support, seeking safe-haven assets amid domestic property market weakness and yuan depreciation. This demand has helped gold maintain strength despite historically challenging conditions of dollar strength and elevated yields.
Gold (Interval D1)
The price broke above the 100-day SMA yesterday, which coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and it is currently trading near the 50-day SMA. For bulls, the key level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which has previously triggered two fake breakouts followed by corrections. This time, however, the momentum appears to favor bulls.
The RSI is showing signs of bullish divergence, aligning with a recent bullish crossover on the MACD, which may indicate growing upward momentum. These technical signals suggest potential for a bullish breakout if the key resistance is overcome. Source: xStation
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
