أخبار العملات المشفرة: العملات المشفرة تحت ضغط بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي و البيتكوين أقل من 20000 دولار أمريكي

The end of last week proved to be ruthless for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin dived to around $19,500, and Ethereum lost its bullish momentum by falling below $1,500. Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole also caused huge declines in stock market indices:

• Powell reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's focus on bringing inflation to its 2% inflation target, and did not rule out another big 75bp hike in September contingent on the totality of labor market data counting from July. Friday's NFP report from the US is likely to cause a spike in volatility in the cryptocurrency market as well. A very weak reading could mean that the Fed will not dare a big hike, however, this is an unlikely scenario;
• Singapore's central bank plans to implement new regulations that will make it more difficult for retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies. The bank's head pointed to the ignorance of market participants and the huge risks of trading digital assets as the reason. The Taliban has also blocked cryptocurrency trading in Afghanistan due to the scale of fraud, government institutions have arrested and forced holders of local exchanges to suspend operations;
• The Dubai Digital Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) expects an increase in transparency from the cryptocurrency industry, new guidelines came out as early as August 25. Among the first to receive a VARA license was the exchange run by Sam Bankman-Fried FTX, which has a native cryptocurrency with a twin name. VARA, like the Emirates as a whole, is focused on regulating the industry but recognizes its enormous potential of which we can see evidence in, among other things, the acquisition of virtual land in the Sandbox blockchain, in May of this year.
• Once again altcoins lost mightily. The BlackRock-backed Algorand, one of the sponsors of this year's soccer World Cup, settled below $0.30. Cardano is back landing around $0.42 despite advances in a hard fork of the network dubbed Vasil. Ethereum developers have not moved up the implementation date of 'The Merge.' According to data from analyst site Wenmerge, the transition to version 2.0 will take place on September 13. At the same time, the euphoric sentiment about Ethereum has visibly weakened and many exchanges intend to suspend Ethereum withdrawals and trading on the day of the Merge by which some investors do not want to risk their exposure to ETH in the face of the still unclear short-term price outcome caused by the transition to Proof of Stake.

The chart shows the so-called Accumulation Trend Index depending on the size of the cryptocurrency portfolio. Looking at the record declines in June, we can see two phases, Phase A and Phase B. The drops below $20,000 in phase A resulted in accumulation from addresses with portfolios below 1 BTC and above 10,000 BTC (excluding addresses of miners and exchanges). Then, after piercing the 'Realized price' levels, the Bitcoin price recorded a rally above $25,000 (phase B). Unfortunately, all investor groups in this phase made distributions i.e. Bitcoin sales. The appetite for accumulation on the part of smaller addresses holding less than 1 BTC also weakened, thus supply pressure further increased. Source: Glassnode

The number of Bitcoin addresses is falling, which is a kind of confirmation of the bull market. Rising new address activity usually heralds new demand, meanwhile, but the increases were not offset by a spike in the number of addresses, which further completes the picture of the seasonality of the recent rebound. The chart juxtaposes the monthly average of new addresses with the annual average, which provides a good picture of market sentiment and the popularity of BTC. The April 2021 price drop was confirmed by a drastic drop in the monthly average of new addresses, the apparent correlation between the number of addresses and the price of Bitcoin is obvious. An increase in the number of addresses after a price consolidation phase usually heralded a recovering demand. Today we see that the monthly average of addresses is still lower than the annual average, confirming that the bulls are in trouble. Source: Glassnode

The chart shows the quarterly SOPR index.  The index shows (90-day average) we can see the ratio of prices at which short-term Bitcoin holders made sales to purchase prices, with the 1.0 level separating profit realizations from losses. The capitulation after the fall of 2021 resulted in a huge realization of losses among short-term traders (falling below 1.0). A sustained breakout above the 1.0 level should herald an influx of new capital into the market. Currently, however, this is still far from happening, the level is holding firm and traders have realized losses below the 'realized price' level, i.e. the average purchase price of Bitcoin on the blockchain, which runs at $21,700. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin miners activity is waning. Evaluating the internal fee income of the Bitcoin network can help estimate how the competition in the miner market presents itself. An early downturn usually coincides with a decline in fees, which account for miners' income. The range between 2.5 and 5% is the threshold between low and high market demand. A climb above 2.5/5% can be considered positive for network activity and thus mining activity. However, we are not currently seeing growth above these levels, and potentially rising energy tariffs are squeezing miners' margins discouraging some of them from further mining. Source: Glassnode

يظهر مؤشر الخوف والجشع مرة أخرى خوفًا شديدًا بعد أن انخفض سعر البيتكوين إلى أقل من 20000 دولار في مواجهة خطاب باول المتشدد في جاكسون هول. ومع ذلك ، فإن مستويات الخوف الشديد عند مستوى 10/12 في يونيو لا تزال بعيدة المنال. المصدر: البديل

مخطط البيتكوين ، الفاصل الزمني D1. من الواضح أن ملك العملات المشفرة يضعف. و يبلغ متوسط SMA200 لمدة 200 جلسة على الفاصل الزمني اليومي حاليًا حوالي 31000 دولار لكل رمز ، وقد فشل الطلب في تجاوزه في النصف الأول من عام 2022. حيث توقف ارتفاع الإغاثة إلى 25000 دولار بعد أن اضطرت الأسواق إلى مراجعة "محور الاحتياطي الفيدرالي" . لا يزال الاحتياطي الفيدرالي مصراً في سياق مكافحة التضخم ، والذي يتوقع حدوث انخفاضات في سوق العملات المشفرة. المصدر: xStation5