Oil:
- Brent tests key resistance zone, just below 2018 highs - next resistance is located $ 90 per barrel
- Very steep structure of the forward curve
- The spread difference between the contracts was $ 1.00 earlier this week, while in a 12-month perspective, the difference is over $8.00
- Forecasts of hyperinflation in the United States have emerged, which could lead to an increase in oil prices in the range of 140-180 dollars per barrel
- On the other hand, these levels appear irrational given the potential destruction of demand
- WoodMac points out that $ 80 a barrel was previously thought to be a destructive demand level. Currently, however, due to the shift in demand from gas to oil, destructive demand level may have been moved higher
- Saudi Aramco promises to supply more oil to refineries in Asia
- China closed 60 coal mines due to floods, which not only increases coal prices, but also increases demand for oil and gas
- Previously, China ordered 72 mines to increase their coal production, including the most environmentally harmful varieties, despite the fact that mines have complied with the limits set by environmental regulations
- It is worth mentioning that China maintains an unofficial ban on Australian coal
- Iran wants more investments and foreign products - it offers oil in return
Brent price is approaching a key supply zone that ranges from $ 85 to $ 90 a barrel. Source: xStation5
إبدأ بالإستثمار اليوم أو تدرّب على حساب تجريبي
قم بفتح حساب حقيقي جرب الحساب التجريبي تحميل تطبيق الجوال تحميل تطبيق الجوال
The difference in 12-month contracts already exceeded $ 8 a barrel, which in the past indicated a "peak" in short-term demand. Source: Bloomberg
Palladium:
- Commodity price rebounded strongly, despite the fact that the fundamental outlook remained unchanged
- Nornickel significantly lowers its deficit forecast for this year to 0.2-0.3 million ounces from 0.4-0.5 million ounces and to 0.3 million ounces from 0.7 million ounces for 2022
- Nornickel covers approx. 44% of the palladium supply
- The automotive sector accounts for 83% of all palladium demand
- The head of sales of the Russian mining company indicates that demand will return to normal only in 2023
- Palladium sales in 2021 are expected to be similar to 2020 and amount to 2.6 million ounces (compared to 2019, it was a 12% decrease in sales)
- The company is selling a large amount of its inventory this year
- The company plans to resume production in previously flooded mines
- It is worth noting that power cuts can have mixed effects on the price of palladium. On the one hand, mining is very energy-intensive. On the other hand, energy shortages, particularly in Asia, may lead to production stagnation in the automotive sector.
The key resistance for palladium is located around $ 2,250 and $ 2,300. Source: xStation5
Gold:
- ETFs continue to sell gold, on the other hand, a slight recovery from speculative positioning
- Bond yields are clearly rising, pointing to potentially lower gold prices. The US dollar is also gaining
- US government collapse unlikely, on the other hand gold market investors may not believe in the start of QE tapering in November, given weak labor market data for September
ETFs are still selling gold. Source: Bloomberg
We can currently observe a very large divergence of TNOTE and gold prices. A similar difference was noticeable in March. Source: xStation5
Corn:
- The price remains in a narrow range of 500-550 cents per bushel - only a decisive break any of these level could lead to bigger price movements
- The 15-year seasonality indicates a potential start of an upward movement, on the other hand, the 5-year volatility shows that the coming weeks may be mixed
- A slight recovery on the part of speculators - we have generally seen a sell-off since April this year
- The quality of corn crops in the USA leaves a lot to be desired. In case of bad weather (like last year), possible very weak harvest which will lead to price recovery
- Late vegetation last year, followed by flooding and snow, prevented the harvest of the entire corn crop, which led to a clear price rebound.
- This year, we also have a significant increase in the export of raw materials, in particular to China
Corn prices have been trying to rebound for several weeks. The lack of a clear rebound in key US agricultural commodities is probably due to the weak Brazilian real. The key factor for prices will be the start of the US harvest - the later the better for the prices. Source: xStation5
The quality of corn crops has been relatively low within the last 5 years. In theory, the weather could make this season as bad as last year. Source: Bloomberg
