- The European trading session passed in a positive mood today. The DAX index rose by nearly 1.7%, led by gains in Adidas, TUI, and SAP, which recently became the most valuable publicly traded company in Europe.
- Wall Street remains in search of direction amid heightened uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s scheduled retaliatory tariffs. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading in positive territory (up 0.1% and down 0.1%, respectively), while the DJIA is down 0.2% and the Russell 2000 slips by 0.05%.
- The VIX volatility index, after a series of sharp swings, is now falling below the 21-point mark. However, following the release of concerning ISM manufacturing data, it briefly surged to nearly 22. Tesla shares are performing strongly, up nearly 6%, while Johnson & Johnson is under pressure after deeper losses, dragging down other healthcare names such as Merck and Eli Lilly.
- Donald Trump has agreed to the proposed tariff plan, which will come into effect upon official announcement, according to a White House spokesperson. At the same time, she noted that Trump “takes recent market movements seriously,” a statement interpreted by investors as a potential sign that tomorrow’s message may be softer, should market stress intensify.
- The March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped more than expected, signaling a contraction in the sector after two months of dynamic expansion. The index came in at 49.0 (forecast: 49.5; previous: 50.3). The prices-paid subindex jumped to over 69 points, the highest since August 2022 (vs. forecast: 64, prior: 62), indicating a sharp rebound in cost pressures. New orders and employment components also fell noticeably.
- In parallel, supply chain disruptions linked to Chinese tariff risk are beginning to surface. On a more positive note, final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March was slightly better than forecast, at 50.2, compared to the expected 49.9 and a preliminary reading of 49.8.
- The JOLTS job openings report showed 7.57 million vacancies in February, slightly below expectations (forecast: 7.66M; prior: 7.74M).
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell by another 1.14% as expectations for a Fed rate cut in June intensified following the soft ISM data. Money markets are now pricing in an 86% probability of a rate cut in June.
- Most G10 currencies are gaining against the U.S. dollar. The Australian dollar strengthens after the RBA held rates steady at 4.1% (AUDUSD: +0.4%), while the Canadian dollar is supported by hawkish rhetoric from Canada’s Prime Minister, who pledged readiness for retaliatory measures, and by broader sentiment that trade war risks are already priced in (USDCAD: -0.4%). Meanwhile, EURUSD slips back below 1.08, down 0.2% to 1.0793.
- Gold pulls back by 0.3% to $3,114/oz, following White House remarks that “Trump takes market swings seriously,” which has helped restore some risk appetite. Silver drops by 1.3% to $33.64/oz.
- Energy commodities are mostly under pressure today. Brent and WTI crude oil are both down by roughly 0.3%, while natural gas futures are trading 3.5% lower.
- In contrast, Bitcoin is rebounding strongly, gaining over 3% and climbing back above $85,000, slowly recovering from recent weakness. The broader crypto market also shows modest signs of revival. Interestingly, this comes alongside a 0.5% drop in gold, which retreats to the $3,100 level — potentially signaling that markets are increasingly hopeful for a softening tone from Trump, a move that could support the dollar, equities, and crypto assets.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has violated ceasefire terms multiple times, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to Zelensky, the U.S. administration is already aware of these incidents, underscoring how far the region still is from any sustainable peace agreement.
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