Summary:
- Polish zloty under pressure
- GBPPLN broke above the key resistance
- USDPLN at YTD highs
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CHFPLN remains above the 4.00 handle
USDPLN keeps pushing higher
Today analysis will be about the Polish currency, which has been under selling pressure since the beginning of July. Let’s start from the USDPLN chart. The current upward move can be treated as a realization of the range of the classic technical pattern - an inverse head and shoulders. According to the Overbalance methodology, further gains are being limited by the 1:1 market geometry. The previous three downward correction moves were equal in size. As long as the lower limit of the 1:1 structure holds firm, the trend remains upward. The nearest support level can be found at the 3.91 handle, but only a break below 3.90 handle could trigger a bigger downward move. The pair reached fresh YTD highs today. The nearest resistance level can be found at the 3.9715 handle, where 161,8% Fibo level is localized.
Source: xStation5
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Let’s move to the GBPPLN now. Brexit turmoil caused the pair to trade in a downward trend starting from March 2019. However, the Overbalance methodology hints at a possible trend reversal. After some struggles buyers managed to break above the 4.78 handle - the limit of 1:1 structure. Today one can observe the supply-side reaction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, but the upward move could be restarted at any moment. Continuation of the uptrend seems to be the base case scenario as long as the price holds above the 4.78 handle. A break above the aforementioned Fibo level could see the upward move accelerate and bring the price to the next resistance - 61.8% retracement.
Source: xStation5
CHFPLN keeps trading in the vicinity of 4.00 handle
Polish zloty is also losing ground against the Swiss franc. The upward move accelerated following a break above the upper limit of the long-term consolidation range. The recent correction move was equal to the one observed in June and, according to the Overbalance methodology , the trend remains upward. Break back below the support level at the 3.90 handle could trigger a bigger decline. However, it should be noted that in the past few days CHFPLN has been trading in the vicinity of 4.00 handle and each attempt to move lower was met with the demand-side reaction.
Source: xStation5
