Novavax crashes almost 30% after earnings

Shares of Novavax (NVAX.US) are slumping over 20% today, putting an abrupt end to an upward correction that has pushed the company's share 50% higher in a matter of days. Company reported Q4 2023 earnings report today before opening of the Wall Street session, which included disappointing full-year forecasts.

Novavax reported an 18% YoY drop in Q4 revenue to $291.3 million, significantly below $322 million expected by analysts. The company's only marketable product is its Covid vaccine, for which the demand has been dropping as the world puts pandemic in the rearview mirror. Nevertheless, Novavax managed to narrow the loss compared to a year ago quarter.

Apart from weakish Q3 2023 results, 2024 forecasts provided by the company are also playing a role in today's share price collapse. Company expects 2024 revenue to reach $800 million to $1 billion. This translates into mid-point of $900 million, below $970 million expected by analysts. Moreover, it also means that Novavax expects a flat to slightly lower revenue this year.

Q4 2023 earnings

• Revenue: $291.3 million vs $322.2 million expected (-18% YoY)
• Research & Development expenses: $164.7 million vs $136.1 million expected (-36% YoY)
• Net loss: $178.4 million vs $23.9 million expected
• EPS: -$1.44 vs -$0.43 expected (-$2.28 a year ago)
• Cash position: $568.5 million vs $515 million expected

2023 results

• Revenue: $984 million vs $2 billion in 2022
• Research & Development expenses: $738 million vs $1.2 billion in 2022
• Net loss: $545 million vs $658 million in 2022

Full-year forecast

• Revenue: $0.80-1.00 billion vs $0.97 billion expected
• Research & Development expenses: $700-800 million

Taking a look at Novavax chart (NVAX.US) at D1 interval, we can see that the stock jumped over 50% between February 21 and February 27, 2024. Stock was trading 70% above early-February lows at the close of the Wall Street session yesterday. However, disappointing earnings releases triggered a massive share price slump today. Stock launched today's trading over 20% lower and deepened those declines to trade almost 30% lower on the day now. The $4.30 swing area is being tested at press time.

Source: xStation5