Morning wrap (24.02.2025)

Futures on U.S. indices indicate gains of around 0.1-0.2% at today's opening. Wall Street ended last week with a significant correction (S&P 500: -1.7%, Nasdaq: -2.2%, DJIA: -2.2%, Russell 2000: -3%) following weak PMI data, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and rising inflation expectations according to the University of Michigan.

Germany's Bundestag elections were won by the Christian Democratic CDU/CSU (28.5%) led by Friedrich Merz. The far-right AfD, recently endorsed by Elon Musk, came in second (20.8%), while the SPD, the party of current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, placed third. The Greens (11.6%) and the Left Party (8.7%) also surpassed the electoral threshold.

EURUSD is up 0.5% (1.0510) following the conservatives' victory in Germany. The U.S. dollar is weakening against nearly all G10 currencies (USD Index: -0.36%) due to strong demand for the euro. The exception is the Japanese yen, slightly down after recent gains (USDJPY: -0.07%).

Gold benefits from weaker dollar (+0.15% to $2,940 per ounce), silver is also in positive territory ($32.66 per ounce, +0.65%).

Asian markets are mostly declining, mainly due to fading optimism in tech stocks after Donald Trump signed a memorandum (lower in rank than an executive order) restricting Chinese investments in strategic U.S. sectors (including technology, raw materials, and energy). The Shanghai SE Composite and HSCEI are down 0.55% and 0.65%, respectively, while South Korea's Kospi Index is also in the red (-0.43%). The Japanese stock market is closed for the Emperor's birthday.

Brent and WTI crude oil prices are down 0.12% and 0.21%, respectively, as Iraq increases supply, receiving approximately 185,000 barrels per day from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Natural gas (NATGAS) is also declining due to forecasts of higher temperatures in the U.S. (-5%).

Bitcoin remains around 95,800 (+0.04%), while Ethereum continues to decline following Friday's fund theft from ByBit (2,730, -2.75%).

New Zealand's retail sales increased in Q4 2024 above expectations (+0.9%, forecast: +0.5%, previous: -0.1%).

Today’s key macroeconomic data releases include the final consumer inflation (HICP) reading for the Eurozone and German IFO survey.