Morning Wrap (18.12.2024)

6:36 AM 18 December 2024
  • Asian markets trade cautiously ahead of the Fed's December meeting, where a 25bps rate cut is widely expected but focus remains on 2025 guidance. Wall Street set a nervous tone with the NASDAQ retreating from record highs and the Dow Jones experiencing its worst losing streak in over 40 years. US futures remain flat in Asian trade.
  • South Korea's KOSPI rose 1% as acting President Han Duck-soo continued to assure markets of stability following President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. Australia's ASX 200 gained 0.2%, while Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.3%, reflecting mixed regional sentiment.
  • China plans to boost fiscal spending significantly, with Reuters reporting Beijing will target a record 4% GDP deficit in 2025, up from the current 3% target. The increase implies additional spending of 1.3 trillion yuan ($179.4B), spurring gains in mainland markets. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.9%.
  • Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan are in merger talks that could create the world's third-largest auto manufacturer with annual output of 7.4 million vehicles. The news triggered massive moves in auto stocks, with Nissan surging 22% and Mitsubishi jumping 13%, while Honda fell 2%. The potential merger reflects growing pressure from Chinese EV makers and Tesla on traditional automakers.
  • The dollar maintains its strength near three-week highs as markets anticipate a hawkish Fed outlook. Strong US retail sales data reinforced expectations of gradual rate cuts in 2025. The Australian dollar hit a one-year low at $0.6325, while the New Zealand dollar touched a two-year low of $0.5748, reflecting broad dollar strength.
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards have significantly expanded their control over the country's oil industry, now managing up to 50% of exports compared to 20% three years ago, according to Western officials and security sources. The development complicates Western sanctions effectiveness as Trump prepares to return to the White House. Oil prices remain under pressure with WTI trading at $70.60 and Brent at $73.34 per barrel.
  • Eli Lilly received approval from China's drug regulator for its Alzheimer's treatment Kisunla (donanemab), marking the fourth major market authorization after the US, Japan, and UK. The treatment, which targets beta amyloid proteins in the brain, is priced at $32,000 for a 12-month course in the US, compared to competitor Leqembi's $26,500.
  • Gold prices hold steady at $2,646 ahead of the Fed meeting, facing pressure from dollar strength and expectations of a slower rate cut path in 2025. Meanwhile, copper declined 0.4% to $8,973 despite China's stimulus plans, as recent data continues to show weakness in the world's largest copper consumer.
  • Congress is set to vote on new legislation restricting US investments in Chinese technology sectors, particularly in AI and national security-sensitive areas. The bill expands on existing Treasury restrictions and includes provisions for reviewing Chinese real estate purchases near sensitive sites and scrutinizing telecom licenses held by foreign adversaries.
  • Boeing announced the resumption of production across its 737, 767, and 777/777X programs following the end of a seven-week machinists' strike. The FAA maintains its cap of 38 MAX aircraft per month, implemented after January's Alaska Airlines incident, with a review planned for January 2025.
  • Bitcoin retreated from its new all-time high of $108,152, currently trading around $103,500, while Ethereum dropped 5% from above $4,000 to $3,832 as crypto markets digested recent gains ahead of the Fed decision.
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