Morning wrap (18.03.2025)

The renewed rise in geopolitical tensions between Israel - Hamas and US - Iran, has prompted capital to flee to safer assets. In the first part of the day, we observed gains in Gold, Oil, and the US Dollar. CFD contracts on US indices, as well as contracts on indices in China and Europe, were declining. However, the losses are not significant.

US contracts are down between 0.30-0.50%. Contracts on Chinese indices are recording losses of up to 0.70%. The Australian AU200.cash contract is down 0.50%, while the Singaporean SG20cash index is gaining 0.50%. European index contracts are trading mixed in the range of +/-0.05%.

The price of WTI crude oil has risen by 0.90% to $67.70 per barrel in response to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Gold has reached a new record high of $3,012, gaining 0.40% today.

Tensions between Israel and Hamas are rising again, and the temporary ceasefire period has been broken. Israel has launched intense airstrikes on Gaza after Hamas refused to release hostages. Hamas rejected the mediators' proposals, leading to the resumption of fighting.

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran that if the Yemeni Houthis continue attacking international shipping routes, they will face "terrible" consequences. He stated that Iranian leadership would be held accountable for "every shot fired by the Houthis," whom Tehran has long supported. The group later claimed that it had attacked a US aircraft carrier three times in the past two days.

The Pentagon reported that since Saturday, it has attacked 30 targets in Yemen, marking the largest US military operation in the Middle East since Trump returned to the White House.

There have been reports that US forces have sunk an Iranian spy ship. However, this has not yet been officially confirmed.

The US Dollar is the strongest currency today, despite limited volatility in the forex market. The USD has strengthened against the EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, and GBP, indicating the overall strength of the American currency. USDJPY is up 0.35% to 149.8500.

Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized that the market should determine bond prices independently. However, he warned that government intervention is possible if the situation becomes unstable.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the market does not expect any changes in monetary policy. The reason is the risks arising from the global trade war and tariffs.

Trump has announced a conversation with Putin regarding ending the war. He emphasized that many points of agreement have already been reached, but unresolved issues remain. The meeting is scheduled for today.

Attacks on Tesla cars continue. Unknown perpetrators damaged about 20 vehicles at a Tesla showroom. Earlier reports indicated gunfire at a Tesla showroom in Oregon.

Trump has ordered an end to protection for Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden—the son and daughter of former President Joe Biden.

According to Deutsche Bank, out of 60 historical market corrections of 10%—like the one we are currently observing—44% led to a recession within 12 months. In 12% of cases, the recession had already begun, while 56% of corrections were unrelated to a recession.