Key events for next week

• Jackson Hole symposium – 27/08 – which will now be held virtually with the theme “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy” on August 27th and 28th. Investors will look for  more detail on the Fed's monetary policy in case of another surge of Covid-19 cases as the flu season is approaching.

• US Personal Spending (Jul) – 28/08 – the recent retail sales figures showed a slowdown in US consumer spending, after two strong months of gains. Upcoming personal spending data may show a decline in consumer spending, especially as several of the stimulus measures were withdrawn at the end of last month. Analysts' are expecting that spending  will drop from 5.6% in June to 1.4% in July.
• US Q2 GDP – 27/08 – recent data showed an annualized decline of -32.9%, however these figure is  likely to be heavily revised in the near future. When it comes to this week’s Q2 revision, analysts' are expecting a  modest improvement to -32.6%  taking into consideration sharp rebound in May and June.

• US Weekly jobless claims – 27/08 –if there is a sharp rise in new claims again, then the pressure to adopt a new stimulus package is likely to only intensify.

• Germany Q2 GDP and IFO Business Climate survey – 25/08 – analysts are expecting -10.1% contraction, however investors will try to assess how the economy has recovered in the last few months and how companies assess the long-term prospects of a possible recovery in the face of a second wave of infection. Last month IFO Business Climate survey rose to post pandemic high of 90.5 from a record low of 74.2 in April. Still second  wave of infections is rising concerns among many German businesses, which might mean that the sentiment index could struggle to get back to the pre-pandemic levels.