Economic calendar: Will NFP take us by surprise too?

Summary:

• US non-farm payrolls is the most important release today
• Canadian employment report will also be released
• Several prints from European economies to be published before noon

7:45 am BST - Industrial production from France for April: The reading of industrial output for April we got this morning from Germany was a shocker. It showed a 1.9% MoM decline (SA) casting a long shadow on any recovery in the European industry from the second quarter. Thus, prints from other economies will be remarkably important. The consensus for France indicates a 0.3% MoM improvement.

9:00 am BST - Italian retail sales for April

1:30 pm BST - US/Canadian employment reports: The two readings will be by far the most important to watch during Friday’s session. Let us remind that the ADP release took traders off guard by producing the lowest employment increase in a decade. Looking back to the past disappointments in ADP where often reflected in NFP, hence the consensus of 175k for today seems to be somewhat inflated. On the other hand, one may suppose that investors may be prepared for a disappointment, hence any adverse reaction in stocks/US dollar could be limited. The jobless rate is to stay at 3.6% and wage growth is to stay at 3.2% YoY.

In case of Canada, the median estimate points to a 5k increase in employment after a stunning 106.5k pick-up in April. Wage growth in annual terms is forecast to have fallen to 2.4% from 2.6%, whereas the unemployment rate is expected to have held at 5.7%.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 9:00 am BST - ECB’s Nowotny

• 10:00 am BST - ECB’s Rimsevics

• 11:15 am BST - Riksbank’s Ingves

The USDCAD broke below the upward channel on Thursday. Source: xStation5