Economic calendar: ECB decision, US GDP and jobless claims in market spotlight

• Investors await the ECB decision and U.S. economic data.
• Futures on US indices gain; European stock market sentiments are positive 

Market sentiment remains positive in today’s session, despite a slightly more hawkish tone in Powell’s speech yesterday. The mood has been boosted by strong IBM earnings and an excellent Meta Platforms report, which confirms that AI is significantly improving the profitability of the social media giant.

Wall Street futures are gaining, although Microsoft slipped more than 4% in after-hours trading. Despite beating expectations, the company reported lower-than-expected cloud revenue growth, with a 31% YoY increase versus the 31.8% forecast.

Investors are focusing on the European Central Bank's decision and Christine Lagarde's remarks, which could increase volatility in the EUR/USD pair. The baseline scenario assumes a dovish tone, as recent macroeconomic data from Europe suggest continued structural economic challenges, particularly in Germany and France.

Economic Calendar

• France – Consumer Spending (December): 0.7% MoM vs. 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
• France – Q4 2024 GDP (QoQ): -0.1% vs. 0% forecast, 0.4% previous (YoY: 0.7% vs. 0.8% forecast, 1.3% previous)
• Germany – Import/Export Prices:
  • Import prices: +2.0% MoM (expected 1.9%, previous 0.6%)
  • Export prices: +0.4% MoM (expected 0.5%, previous 0.9%)
• Switzerland – KOF Leading Indicator (December): 101.6 vs. 100.15 forecast, 99.5 previous
• Spain – CPI Inflation (December): 3.0% YoY vs. 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous (MoM: 0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous)
• Germany – Q4 2024 GDP (9 AM GMT): -0.1% QoQ forecast vs. 0.1% previous (-0.3% YoY vs. 0.1% previous)
• Eurozone – Preliminary Q4 2024 GDP (10 AM GMT): 1.0% forecast vs. 0.9% previous (QoQ: 0.1% vs. 0.4% previous)
• Eurozone – Unemployment Rate: 6.3% vs. 6.3% previous
• Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision (1:15 PM GMT): 2.75% forecast vs. 3% previous
• Christine Lagarde Press Conference (1:45 PM GMT)
• U.S. – Jobless Claims (1:30 PM GMT): 225K forecast vs. 223K previous
• U.S. – Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.901M forecast vs. 1.899M previous
• U.S. – Q4 2024 GDP (1:30 PM GMT): 2.6% forecast vs. 3.1% previous
• U.S. – GDP Price Index (Q4): 2.5% YoY forecast vs. 1.9% previous

Earnings Reports

• Before Market Open: Mastercard, UPS, Caterpillar
• After Market Close: Intel, Visa