Economic calendar: ECB decision and US retail sales as key events of the day 📌

Today, we will receive several important macroeconomic data points from the US and Europe. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) will make interest rate decisions.

In the first part of the day, we will learn about inflation data from the Eurozone. Expectations point to a figure of 1.8% year-on-year, compared to 2.2% year-on-year in August. This would be the lowest expected result since April 2021. After that, we will get the CBRT’s decision, where the one-week interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 50%. Shortly after, the ECB's decision will be announced. As of the time of writing, the market is fully pricing in another rate cut of 25 basis points. The main arguments for this decision are weak data from the Eurozone and low inflation readings.

Later, investors will shift their attention to the US, where we will see retail sales data for September and the industrial production report. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in August.

Detailed schedule for the day:

09:15 AM BST, Euro Zone - ECB McCaul Speaks

10:00 AM BST, Euro Zone - Inflation Data for September:

• HICP ex Energy and Food: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• HICP ex Energy & Food: forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
• CPI: forecast -0.1% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• CPI: forecast 1.8% YoY; previous 2.2% YoY;
• Core CPI: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
• Core CPI: forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;

10:45 AM BST, Euro Zone - ECB McCaul Speaks

01:15 PM BST, Euro Zone - ECB Monetary Policy Statement

01:15 PM BST, Euro Zone - ECB Marginal Lending Facility for March:

• Interest Rate Decision: forecast 3.40%; previous 3.65%;
• Deposit Facility Rate: forecast 3.25%; previous 3.50%;
• Marginal Lending Facility: previous 3.90%;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data:

• Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 241K; previous 258K;
• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 231.00K;
• Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,870K; previous 1,861K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Retail Sales Data for September:

• Retail Sales: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• Core Retail Sales: forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• Retail Sales: previous 2.13% YoY;
• Retail Control: previous 0.3% MoM;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October:

• forecast 4.2; previous 1.7;

01:45 PM BST, Euro Zone - ECB Press Conference

02:15 PM BST, United States - Industrial Production for September:

• Industrial Production: previous 0.04% YoY;
• Industrial Production: forecast -0.1% MoM; previous 0.8% MoM;

02:15 PM BST, United States - Manufacturing Production for September:

• forecast -0.1% MoM; previous 0.9% MoM;

04:00 PM BST, United States - EIA Data:

• EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: forecast -2.500M; previous -3.124M;
• Crude Oil Inventories: forecast 1.800M; previous 5.810M;
• Gasoline Inventories: forecast -1.400M; previous -6.304M;

04:00 PM BST, United States - Fed Goolsbee Speaks