- Only a few days remain before an important decision from the Federal Reserve on interest rates on 18 September. The rate cut is obvious, while the question of its size remains
- The market gives a 45% probability for a 50 basis point cut. It seems that investors in the precious metals market are expecting a larger cut.
- Gold is reaching levels of $2585 per ounce, while silver is approaching levels of $31 per ounce, gaining more than 10% this week
- Strong gains this week are also seen in platinum and palladium, on expectations of a larger deficit. Concerns have been raised about a ban on exports of key metals from Russia and allied countries.
- Crude oil is recovering some of this week's losses, testing levels of $70 per barrel for WTI crude, after testing levels of $65 per barrel this week
- The consumer confidence index came in at 69 preliminary for September, a rebound from 67.9, higher than the expected 68.5 points
- Weakness in the U.S. dollar led the USDJPY pair to fall to its lowest level this year. BoJ meeting next week, but no interest rate hike expected
- U.S. indices have rebounded sharply since the middle of this week, and there has been a reduction of almost all the decline from the first week of September. The US100 is just 0.5% short of its September 2 peak
- Nasdaq 100 gains despite weakness in Adobe, which dropped almost 10% today after providing lower than expected for the next quarter, beating EPS and revenues expectations. However, expected by Adobe Q4 quarterly sales dynamics implies the lowest quarterly rise in the company history despite software generative AI tools in progress
- DJIA (US30) gains almost 1% today and stock market rebound is linked to the expectation of a larger cut by the Fed, which at this point is no longer seen by the market as a threat, but a need to avoid a hard landing, while US macro data came in stronger than expected
- CPI inflation this week came in as expected, except for a stronger rebound in core inflation. It is this factor, along with higher monthly PPI inflation readings, that may cause the 50 bps rate cuts by the Fed
- Bitcoin is also gaining 3% today due to rising expectations for additional cuts from the Fed. Microstrategy stock surges 7% on new that company bought 18,300 Bitcoins
- Boeing is losing more than 3% today in the face of worker strikes. The company's shares are losing 60% this year in the face of major aircraft problems
- Sugar is rebounding today, due to concerns about Brazil's harvest in the face of ongoing wildfires there. Cotton, on the other hand, is gaining due to the crop being threatened by hurricanes in the US and the rebounding price of oil
- This week saw an election debate between Trump and Harris. Although both camps declared victory in the debate many media outlets pointed to Harris' advantage in the debate. Movement in the markets was limited, although some weakening of the dollar could be seen.
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