Chart of the day - US100 (05.09.2023)

As Wall Street will start the week today after yesterday's break due to the Labor Day holiday, the attention of investors around the world will be on the companies in the Nasdaq Index (US100). Although no readings of the caliber of NFP or CPI inflation are scheduled on the macro calendar from the US today, at 15:00 BST monthly change in US factory orders and the revision of US durable goods orders. Recently, markets again took the weaker economic data as good coin hoping for a faster Fed pivot and a gradual return of softer monetary policy. The question, however, should be how long will the data be weaker (but still strong enough) for the market not to fear the effects of the recession and its impact on companies' margins and revenues? September usually brought declines in US stock markets but also often provided an opportunity to buy discounted companies for the fourth quarter of the year, which is usually strong (Santa Claus rally, increased consumer activity and better sentiment ahead of the holiday season). Will this time, despite the risk of recession and weakening data, be no different?

Looking at the US100 on the H1 interval, we see that sellers are once again trying to take control. Wall Street's downward movement was helped today by China, where we learned of lower services PMI and retail sales readings from the Singapore region. The return of concerns around China's continued momentum signals general risk aversion, which is reflected in a stronger dollar and today's 0.55% drop in Nasdaq (US100) contracts. The price has settled below the SMA100 (black line) and the SMA 50 (orange line) on the H1 interval and the key support now seems to be the SMA200 (red line) and also the 23.6 Fibonacci abolition of the upward wave from mid-August, which is already quite close - at 15,400 points. Price reaching this zone could indicate a test of 15,250 points where we see the SMA200 and 38.2 Fibo abolition. In the medium term, however, the key for Wall Street seems to be the defense of the 15,000-point level. Source: xStation5