đ Key report on condition of US consumer to be released at 1:30 pm BST
Previous week saw release of solid data from the US jobs market while earlier this week investors were offered softer-than-expected data on US CPI and PPI inflation gauges. Now the time has come for the release of the US retail sales report for March that will show the condition of the US consumer. However, expectations do not suggest it is holding firm. Headline sales are seen dropping 0.4% MoM, following a similar drop in February, while sales excluding autos are seen dropping 0.3% MoM, following a 0.1% MoM drop in previous month. On one hand, jobs market data is solid and shows wages rising but at the same time US consumers are reluctant to boost spending. Moreover, things look much worse in real terms.
Bank of America expects data to show an even bigger drop - of around 1% MoM - based on its proprietary data on credit card transactions. The last time we saw such a steep drop was in December reading.
Kezdjen befektetni még ma, vagy próbålja ki ingyenes demónkat
ĂlĆ szĂĄmla regisztrĂĄciĂł DEMĂ SZĂMLA Mobil app letöltĂ©se Mobil app letöltĂ©seHow may markets react?
-
It should be noted that market consensus is relatively low, especially when we consider the base effect from February. This creates a scope for a better-than-expected reading (smaller drop in sales). In such a scenario, both USD and equity market indices may see gains
-
Should data show a bigger-than-expected drop, USD may experience a deeper pullback while indices may see mixed reaction. Indices would most likely drop in a knee-jerk move before recovering on the back of dwindling rate hike odds
-
However, should sales show positive growth, USD may regain some ground, especially as it is quite oversold.
Retail sales struggle but the situation in real terms is even worse. Source: Bloomberg, XTB
Retail sales data will not be key for next FOMC decision
Fed is focusing especially on inflation and jobs data. Of course, a plunge in retail sales could be another hint for US central bankers that it may be wise to pause the rate hike cycle. On the other hand, recent comments from Fed Bostic suggest that the May meeting should result in one more rate hike but it will likely be the last one in the current cycle.
US500
US500 trades slightly lower ahead of US retail sales print but remains close to recent local highs. Meanwhile, TNOTE averts drop (inverted axis), which hints that a potential negative reaction on US500 is looming. Of course, should retail sales data surprise to the upside, index futures should see positive reaction as it would hint that the US economy is not in recession, at least not yet.
Source: xStation5
Ezen tartalmat az XTB S.A. kĂ©szĂtette, amelynek szĂ©khelye VarsĂłban talĂĄlhatĂł a következĆ cĂmen, Prosta 67, 00-838 VarsĂł, LengyelorszĂĄg (KRS szĂĄm: 0000217580), Ă©s a lengyel pĂ©nzĂŒgyi hatĂłsĂĄg (KNF) felĂŒgyeli (sz. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). Ezen tartalom a 2014/65/EU irĂĄnyelvĂ©nek, ami az EurĂłpai Parlament Ă©s a TanĂĄcs 2014. mĂĄjus 15-i hatĂĄrozata a pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök piacairĂłl , 24. cikkĂ©nek (3) bekezdĂ©se , valamint a 2002/92 / EK irĂĄnyelv Ă©s a 2011/61 / EU irĂĄnyelv (MiFID II) szerint marketingkommunikĂĄciĂłnak minĆsĂŒl, tovĂĄbbĂĄ nem minĆsĂŒl befektetĂ©si tanĂĄcsadĂĄsnak vagy befektetĂ©si kutatĂĄsnak. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł nem befektetĂ©si ajĂĄnlĂĄs vagy informĂĄciĂł, amely befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt javasol a következĆ rendeleteknek megfelelĆen, Az EurĂłpai Parlament Ă©s a TanĂĄcs 596/2014 / EU rendelete (2014. ĂĄprilis 16.) a piaci visszaĂ©lĂ©sekrĆl (a piaci visszaĂ©lĂ©sekrĆl szĂłlĂł rendelet), valamint a 2003/6 / EK eurĂłpai parlamenti Ă©s tanĂĄcsi irĂĄnyelv Ă©s a 2003/124 / EK bizottsĂĄgi irĂĄnyelvek hatĂĄlyon kĂvĂŒl helyezĂ©sĂ©rĆl / EK, 2003/125 / EK Ă©s 2004/72 / EK, valamint az (EU) 2016/958 bizottsĂĄgi felhatalmazĂĄson alapulĂł rendelet (2016. mĂĄrcius 9.) az 596/2014 / EU eurĂłpai parlamenti Ă©s tanĂĄcsi rendeletnek a szabĂĄlyozĂĄsi technikai szabĂĄlyozĂĄs tekintetĂ©ben törtĂ©nĆ kiegĂ©szĂtĂ©sĂ©rĆl a befektetĂ©si ajĂĄnlĂĄsok vagy a befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt javaslĂł vagy javaslĂł egyĂ©b informĂĄciĂłk objektĂv bemutatĂĄsĂĄra, valamint az egyes Ă©rdekek vagy összefĂ©rhetetlensĂ©g utĂĄni jelek nyilvĂĄnossĂĄgra hozatalĂĄnak technikai szabĂĄlyaira vonatkozĂł szabvĂĄnyok vagy egyĂ©b tanĂĄcsadĂĄs, ideĂ©rtve a befektetĂ©si tanĂĄcsadĂĄst is, az A pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök kereskedelmĂ©rĆl szĂłlĂł, 2005. jĂșlius 29-i törvĂ©ny (azaz a 2019. Ă©vi Lap, mĂłdosĂtott 875 tĂ©tel). Ezen marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł a legnagyobb gondossĂĄggal, tĂĄrgyilagossĂĄggal kĂ©szĂŒlt, bemutatja azokat a tĂ©nyeket, amelyek a szerzĆ szĂĄmĂĄra a kĂ©szĂtĂ©s idĆpontjĂĄban ismertek voltak , valamint mindenfĂ©le Ă©rtĂ©kelĂ©si elemtĆl mentes. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł az ĂgyfĂ©l igĂ©nyeinek, az egyĂ©ni pĂ©nzĂŒgyi helyzetĂ©nek figyelembevĂ©tele nĂ©lkĂŒl kĂ©szĂŒl, Ă©s semmilyen mĂłdon nem terjeszt elĆ befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł nem minĆsĂŒl semmilyen pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszköz eladĂĄsi, felajĂĄnlĂĄsi, feliratkozĂĄsi, vĂĄsĂĄrlĂĄsi felhĂvĂĄsĂĄnak, hirdetĂ©sĂ©nek vagy promĂłciĂłjĂĄnak. Az XTB S.A. nem vĂĄllal felelĆssĂ©get az ĂgyfĂ©l ezen marketingkommunikĂĄciĂłban foglalt informĂĄciĂłk alapjĂĄn tett cselekedeteiĂ©rt vagy mulasztĂĄsaiĂ©rt, kĂŒlönösen a pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök megszerzĂ©sĂ©Ă©rt vagy elidegenĂtĂ©sĂ©Ă©rt. Abban az esetben, ha a marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł bĂĄrmilyen informĂĄciĂłt tartalmaz az abban megjelölt pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközökkel kapcsolatos eredmĂ©nyekrĆl, azok nem jelentenek garanciĂĄt vagy elĆrejelzĂ©st a jövĆbeli eredmĂ©nyekkel kapcsolatban.
