Yesterday's decision by Fitch to downgrade the US rating to AA+ has so far not caused a very powerful reaction in the markets although the prevailing trend of risk aversion is evident. The US dollar is benefiting from this - the USDIDX index extends the rally. The U.S. private sector employment report by ADP came in much stronger than forecast at 324,000 versus 190,000 expected. It indicated a further increase in wages without a significant increase in unemployment - US household spending is likely to remain at fairly high levels. The U.S. dollar is considered one of the 'safe haven' assets, where cash withdrawn from exchange-traded funds and equities, among others, goes. In addition, BofA Research raised its forecast for U.S. real GDP growth for 2023 to 2% from 1.5% previously.
Comments from Fed members Bostic and Goolsbee fairly mixed - but the base case scenario is to maintain Fed policy restrictive.
Kezdjen befektetni még ma, vagy próbålja ki ingyenes demónkat
ĂlĆ szĂĄmla regisztrĂĄciĂł DEMĂ SZĂMLA Mobil app letöltĂ©se Mobil app letöltĂ©seFed Bostic
- We are in a phase where there is a risk of excessive monetary tightening. The Fed should be cautious, patient but also decisive.
- If progress on inflation unexpectedly stalls, I would quietly consider a rate hike.
- Inflation is unacceptably high, but there has been significant progress, and recent data are promising.I expect unemployment to rise as inflation falls, but perhaps only to 4%.
- I will be determined not to change the direction of policy until I am confident that we will bring inflation down to 2%.
- My baseline outlook is for no rate cuts until the second half of 2024 at the earliest. I do not expect a rate hike in September.
Fed Goolsbee
- I will not pre-commit to a September FOMC vote, I want more evidence of easing inflation to end the cycle
- I am closely watching how core goods inflation is evolving. The JOLTS data looked consistent with a strong labor market moving into a more balanced phase.
- How long the Fed will have to hold interest rates or when it will cut them depends on whether it can bring inflation down without causing a recession
- We need to see sustained and steady progress on inflation, I am moderately optimistic.
- The path to lowering inflation without a serious recession is a narrow line, but so far it's working.
USDIDX dollar index, M30 interval. Source: xStation5
Ezen tartalmat az XTB S.A. kĂ©szĂtette, amelynek szĂ©khelye VarsĂłban talĂĄlhatĂł a következĆ cĂmen, Prosta 67, 00-838 VarsĂł, LengyelorszĂĄg (KRS szĂĄm: 0000217580), Ă©s a lengyel pĂ©nzĂŒgyi hatĂłsĂĄg (KNF) felĂŒgyeli (sz. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). Ezen tartalom a 2014/65/EU irĂĄnyelvĂ©nek, ami az EurĂłpai Parlament Ă©s a TanĂĄcs 2014. mĂĄjus 15-i hatĂĄrozata a pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök piacairĂłl , 24. cikkĂ©nek (3) bekezdĂ©se , valamint a 2002/92 / EK irĂĄnyelv Ă©s a 2011/61 / EU irĂĄnyelv (MiFID II) szerint marketingkommunikĂĄciĂłnak minĆsĂŒl, tovĂĄbbĂĄ nem minĆsĂŒl befektetĂ©si tanĂĄcsadĂĄsnak vagy befektetĂ©si kutatĂĄsnak. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł nem befektetĂ©si ajĂĄnlĂĄs vagy informĂĄciĂł, amely befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt javasol a következĆ rendeleteknek megfelelĆen, Az EurĂłpai Parlament Ă©s a TanĂĄcs 596/2014 / EU rendelete (2014. ĂĄprilis 16.) a piaci visszaĂ©lĂ©sekrĆl (a piaci visszaĂ©lĂ©sekrĆl szĂłlĂł rendelet), valamint a 2003/6 / EK eurĂłpai parlamenti Ă©s tanĂĄcsi irĂĄnyelv Ă©s a 2003/124 / EK bizottsĂĄgi irĂĄnyelvek hatĂĄlyon kĂvĂŒl helyezĂ©sĂ©rĆl / EK, 2003/125 / EK Ă©s 2004/72 / EK, valamint az (EU) 2016/958 bizottsĂĄgi felhatalmazĂĄson alapulĂł rendelet (2016. mĂĄrcius 9.) az 596/2014 / EU eurĂłpai parlamenti Ă©s tanĂĄcsi rendeletnek a szabĂĄlyozĂĄsi technikai szabĂĄlyozĂĄs tekintetĂ©ben törtĂ©nĆ kiegĂ©szĂtĂ©sĂ©rĆl a befektetĂ©si ajĂĄnlĂĄsok vagy a befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt javaslĂł vagy javaslĂł egyĂ©b informĂĄciĂłk objektĂv bemutatĂĄsĂĄra, valamint az egyes Ă©rdekek vagy összefĂ©rhetetlensĂ©g utĂĄni jelek nyilvĂĄnossĂĄgra hozatalĂĄnak technikai szabĂĄlyaira vonatkozĂł szabvĂĄnyok vagy egyĂ©b tanĂĄcsadĂĄs, ideĂ©rtve a befektetĂ©si tanĂĄcsadĂĄst is, az A pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök kereskedelmĂ©rĆl szĂłlĂł, 2005. jĂșlius 29-i törvĂ©ny (azaz a 2019. Ă©vi Lap, mĂłdosĂtott 875 tĂ©tel). Ezen marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł a legnagyobb gondossĂĄggal, tĂĄrgyilagossĂĄggal kĂ©szĂŒlt, bemutatja azokat a tĂ©nyeket, amelyek a szerzĆ szĂĄmĂĄra a kĂ©szĂtĂ©s idĆpontjĂĄban ismertek voltak , valamint mindenfĂ©le Ă©rtĂ©kelĂ©si elemtĆl mentes. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł az ĂgyfĂ©l igĂ©nyeinek, az egyĂ©ni pĂ©nzĂŒgyi helyzetĂ©nek figyelembevĂ©tele nĂ©lkĂŒl kĂ©szĂŒl, Ă©s semmilyen mĂłdon nem terjeszt elĆ befektetĂ©si stratĂ©giĂĄt. A marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł nem minĆsĂŒl semmilyen pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszköz eladĂĄsi, felajĂĄnlĂĄsi, feliratkozĂĄsi, vĂĄsĂĄrlĂĄsi felhĂvĂĄsĂĄnak, hirdetĂ©sĂ©nek vagy promĂłciĂłjĂĄnak. Az XTB S.A. nem vĂĄllal felelĆssĂ©get az ĂgyfĂ©l ezen marketingkommunikĂĄciĂłban foglalt informĂĄciĂłk alapjĂĄn tett cselekedeteiĂ©rt vagy mulasztĂĄsaiĂ©rt, kĂŒlönösen a pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközök megszerzĂ©sĂ©Ă©rt vagy elidegenĂtĂ©sĂ©Ă©rt. Abban az esetben, ha a marketingkommunikĂĄciĂł bĂĄrmilyen informĂĄciĂłt tartalmaz az abban megjelölt pĂ©nzĂŒgyi eszközökkel kapcsolatos eredmĂ©nyekrĆl, azok nem jelentenek garanciĂĄt vagy elĆrejelzĂ©st a jövĆbeli eredmĂ©nyekkel kapcsolatban.
