Today’s key event on the economic calendar will be the September US labor market report, due at 12:30 PM GMT. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by around 90,000, compared with 162,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. For markets, the headline NFP figure will not be the only focus. Wage growth and labor force participation will also matter, as they could have a significant impact on expectations for the Fed’s next moves. A stronger report could push Treasury yields and the US dollar higher again, while weaker data could create more room for a dovish repricing of monetary policy.
Economic calendar
- 6:00 AM GMT – Norway: NSA unemployment rate – forecast: n/a, previous: 2.1%.
- 8:00 AM GMT – Italy: retail sales m/m – forecast: n/a, previous: -0.40%.
- 8:00 AM GMT – Italy: NSA retail sales y/y – forecast: n/a, previous: 0.80%.
- 9:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: preliminary CPI y/y – forecast: 3.7%, previous: 3.2%.
- 9:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: preliminary CPI m/m – forecast: 0.5%, previous: 0.4%.
- 9:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: preliminary core CPI y/y – forecast: 2.5%, previous: 2.4%.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: nonfarm payrolls (NFP) – forecast: +90k, previous: +162k.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: unemployment rate – forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: average hourly earnings y/y – forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.1%.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: average weekly hours – forecast: 34.3, previous: 34.4.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: average hourly earnings m/m – forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: labor force participation rate – forecast: 61.6%, previous: 61.6%.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: private payrolls – forecast: +81k, previous: +127k.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: government payrolls – previous: +35k.
- 12:30 PM GMT – US: manufacturing payrolls – forecast: +10k, previous: +16k.
- 2:00 PM GMT – US: factory orders m/m – forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.9%.
- 2:00 PM GMT – US: revised durable goods orders – forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%.
- 2:00 PM GMT – US: revised core durable goods orders – forecast: 0.0%, previous: 0.0%.
Central bank speakers
- 7:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB’s Moulin speaks.
- 7:30 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB’s Piero Cipollone speaks.
- 11:30 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB’s Boris Vujčić speaks.
- 2:00 PM GMT – US: Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks.
The Fed’s implied policy path shows that markets have clearly scaled back expectations for further rate hikes over the past week, although they still price in additional tightening over the coming quarters. The market is now pricing in roughly one 25 bp hike by December, around two hikes by March 2027, and just over three by July. Compared with one week ago, the entire curve has shifted lower, suggesting investors have become more cautious about an aggressive Fed tightening scenario. At the same time, the longer end of the path remains clearly more hawkish than it was four weeks ago, indicating that markets still expect persistent inflationary pressure and relatively high interest rates for longer. Today’s NFP report could therefore determine whether markets move back toward pricing in more hikes or continue reducing expectations for the scale of further tightening.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
BREAKING: US NFP data surprises to the downside; USD dips🔥
🟡Gold takes a breath, because of oil, not NFP
BREAKING: Eurozone flash CPI higher than expected, euro reacts
Eurozone Manufacturing Shows Slightly Better Final PMI Data 💡
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.