Economic calendar: US PCE inflation in the markets spotlight

• Futures suggest higher stock market opening in Europe
• ECB 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations
• All eyes on US PCE inflation data 

With no important macro readings from Europe today, markets today are focused on preferred by Fed inflation measure, PCE inflation data (1:30 PM GMT) as the last few higher than expected CPI disappointed Wall Street. Higher PCE may lead to strengthening US dollar. On the other hand, another gap between strong PCE and weak readings of US personal income and consumption may signal stagflation risks to US economy. After PCE data, markets will also learn final UoM sentiments data for April.

Macro calendar

8 AM GMT - Spanish unemployment rate: 11.92% exp. vs 11.76% previously

• Retail sales (seasonally adjusted): 2.2% YoY exp. vs 1.9% previously

9 AM GMT - ECB inflation expectations (previously 3.1% for 1-year and 2.5% for 3 year)

• ECB Money M3 Growth: 0.6% YoY exp. vs 0.4% previously

1:30 PM GMT - US PCE YoY: 2.6% exp. vs 2.5% previously (0.3% MoM exp. vs 0.3% previously)

• Core PCE: 2.7% exp. vs 2.8% previously (0.3% MoM exp. vs 0.3% previously)
• US consumer spending: 0.6% MoM exp. vs 0.8% previously
• US personal income: 0.5% MoM exp. vs 0.3% previously
• US personal consumption: 0.3% MoM exp. vs 0.4% previously

3 PM GMT - Final University of Michigan sentiments reading: 77.9 exp. (77.9 previously)

• 1-year inflation expectations: 3.1% exp. (3.1% previously)
• 5-year inflation expectations: 3% exp. (3% previously)

Central bankers speeches

• 9 AM GMT ECB de Guindos
• 9 AM GMT SNB Jordan
• 10 AM GMT ECB Centeno

Earnings report

• Q1 results of US Big Oil: Chevron (CVX.US) 4:30 PM GMT and ExxonMobil (XOM.US) 1:30 PM GMT